Forecasters Track Atlantic Systems as Tropical Storm Dolly Nears

National Hurricane Center forecasters are tracking two disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean that could develop into tropical depressions and potentially form Tropical Storm Dolly as the hurricane season ramps up on August 25, 2026. The first system, designated Invest 95L, is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda with a 50 percent chance of formation through 48 hours, though forecasters expect its development window to close by Wednesday over colder waters. A second tropical wave situated near the Cabo Verde Islands off the African coast maintains a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone development over seven days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph toward the tropical Atlantic.

Meteorologists indicate Invest 95L may generate gusty winds and elevated rain in parts of Newfoundland before merging with a cold front, while the eastern Atlantic system remains roughly 2,500 miles from the Lesser Antilles.

Recent environmental conditions across the Atlantic basin have hindered rapid tropical organization due to atmospheric factors, according to meteorologist Nicolas Arman of AccuWeather. "Overall, the strong El Niño continues to produce a lot of wind shear across the Atlantic basin, especially in the Caribbean," said Nicolas Arman, AccuWeather meteorologist.

Arman noted that atmospheric conditions are expected to change as peak climatological periods draw closer. "This combined with lots of dry air is keeping a lid on the tropics for the most part, as we saw with Invests 92L and 94L last week," said Nicolas Arman, AccuWeather meteorologist.

He emphasized that the region off Africa typically sees increased development during late August. "However, we are beginning to draw closer to the peak climatological season for the Atlantic in September. With that in mind, the most likely area to see tropical development next is the Main Development Region in the central Atlantic, as this is where most activity during late August into September occurs as tropical waves continue moving off of Africa into the basin," said Nicolas Arman, AccuWeather meteorologist. Decreasing atmospheric resistance could allow subsequent tropical waves to strengthen into named storms.

"As we approach September, wind shear does look to begin to decrease across this region, which can help any tropical waves traversing the Main Development Region to have a better chance of surviving and becoming a named storm," said Nicolas Arman, AccuWeather meteorologist.

High ocean temperatures and localized atmospheric domes have also impacted regional surface heat indices, according to lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva of AccuWeather. "The really warm sea-surface temperatures off the east and west coast of Florida are in part to blame for the really high heat and humidity across Florida and much of the Southeast," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert. DaSilva explained how coastal moisture interacts with ambient air to elevate heat parameters across the region.

"When that warm water evaporates into the air, it creates a much more humid atmosphere leading to very high dew points and making it feel like you are in a sauna. Any areas that have had recent rain can also be more humid as the water evaporates," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.

High pressure systems continue to contribute to regional weather conditions alongside tropical waves moving across the ocean. "A large dome of high pressure is also to blame for the heat," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.

DaSilva noted that high temperatures across Florida are expected to remain elevated through mid-week. "Expect very hot and humid weather through tomorrow (Aug. 18) across Florida," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.

Daily high temperature records across multiple monitoring stations faced potential challenges during the weather pattern. "Some daily record highs are expected to be challenged or fall all across Florida," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert. Atmospheric pressure shifts during mid-week usually alter the localized temperature impacts.

"This heat while unusual is not necessarily rare for Florida," said Alex DaSilva, Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.

Tropical waves act as foundational disturbances for broader atmospheric developments during the peak months of the hurricane season. "Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert. Data shows that roughly 60 tropical waves move across the Atlantic basin on an annual basis.

"There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.

These weather systems form a significant portion of intense storm developments later in the season. "Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.

Visual monitoring tools help track atmospheric areas showing potential for cyclone formation, according to National Hurricane Center officials. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," said Jamie Rhome, National Hurricane Center Deputy Director.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs annually from June 1 through November 30, with peak climatological activity typically occurring in early September.