Texas Poll Shows Talarico Leading Paxton in US Senate Race

Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow edge over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released August 25, 2026, while Republicans continue to lead in top state executive contests.

The survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted August 5 to 13, shows Talarico with 42 percent support to Paxton's 39 percent, placing the contest within the survey's 2.83 percentage point margin of error. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown drew 3 percent, while 14 percent of respondents expressed no preference.

Partisan consolidation drives the tight margin. Talarico secures 91 percent of Democratic voters, whereas 79 percent of Republicans back Paxton. Independent voters favor Talarico 37 percent to 11 percent, though 43 percent remain undecided. Democratic voters also report higher voting enthusiasm, with 50 percent describing themselves as extremely enthusiastic compared to 39 percent of Republicans.

Separately, an Emerson College poll conducted August 9 to 10 among 1,000 likely voters found Paxton at 47 percent and Talarico at 46 percent, underscoring a statistical dead heat across demographics.

"The race for U.S. Senate in Texas is sharply divided by age: voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, 53 percent to 38 percent, while those over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points, 53 percent to 42 percent," said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.

The competitive figures contrast with recent history. In 2018, Democrat Beto O'Rourke trailed Republican Ted Cruz by 6.8 points in the final RealClearPolitics average before losing by 2.6 percentage points. Moving into the 2026 cycle, real-time prediction platform Kalshi priced both candidates at a 50 percent chance of victory following more than $9.8 million in total contract volume.

Evaluating the utility of snapshot polling, researchers emphasize structural limits in predicting final outcomes months before ballots are cast.

"The reason that we can't know whether the polls are right or wrong is because they're not predicting anything," said Josh Blank, Director of Research for the Texas Politics Project.

"They're taking a measurement at a moment in time about intentions that may or may not come to fruition in some number of months after hundreds of millions of dollars are spent trying to influence those decisions," Blank said.

"We can learn whether a candidate is doing well with their core voters and with key groups in their coalition, or whether they're underperforming," Blank said.

"We can learn about whether there are certain aspects of the candidates or certain issues that make voters more or less likely to support one or another," Blank said.

While the Senate race remains tight, incumbent Republican leaders retain advantages across down-ballot contests in the Texas Politics Project survey.

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 45 percent to 40 percent. In other statewide elections, Lt.

Gov. Dan Patrick leads Vikki Goodwin 42 percent to 35 percent, state Sen. Mayes Middleton leads Nathan Johnson 40 percent to 35 percent for attorney general, and Don Huffines leads Sarah Eckhardt 40 percent to 34 percent for comptroller.

Beyond candidate choices, the poll highlighted strong voter consensus against local infrastructure developments. A 57 percent majority of Texans oppose constructing data centers in their local communities, compared to 30 percent in support and 14 percent undecided. Resistance is highest among Democrats at 75 percent and rural voters at 60 percent, while Republicans remain divided with 45 percent supporting and 43 percent opposing the facilities.