Krugman Criticizes Trump Beef Import Plan and Tariffs

Economist Paul Krugman criticized a U.S. plan to allow 300,000 additional metric tons of imported ground beef without an extra tariff and described Trump tariff policy as raising costs for consumers.

In Mississippi, local cattlemen and consumers said the announcement has renewed attention to where beef comes from, while ranchers weighed how market uncertainty could affect what they sell.

Krugman said Trump’s beef policy lacks clarity on supply and how promised lower prices would reach shoppers.

"The short answer is no. I have no idea what he thinks he’s saying. This is really weird.

I mean, the first question is, where’s the beef? Or actually, where’s the beef coming from? This is an amazing thing.

He says we’re going to bring in 300,000 metric tons of beef, but won’t say from where. Among other things, with all of these food safety scares, I think people would like to know who’s supplying this beef. And anyway, so that’s kind of weird in itself."

Krugman said.

Krugman pointed to the structure of tariff quotas and said it remains unclear why any discount would be passed to consumers.

"Our beef import policy was pretty weird to start with. It’s a tariff quota, where you bring in a certain amount free of tariff, but then after that it pays a tariff. And this is supposed to be an addition to the quota part.

But normally we think of a tariff quota as being, well, the price of beef is set by the marginal ton of beef, which pays a tariff. So somebody’s getting the right to import a bunch of beef, but it’s not at all clear why this should be passed on to consumers." Krugman said.

He also argued that Trump’s claim of a 25 percent below-market price depends on guarantees that do not map to how beef is sold to households.

"And now he’s saying, well, he’s got a commitment that it will be sold at 25 percent less. And a commitment from whom? I mean, even if the wholesalers sell it cheaper, how does the supermarket know this is that imported beef that we’re supposed to sell?

So the whole thing is incoherent. I can’t imagine that anybody sat down to try and figure out how this will work. It just has this feeling of, I wanted to say something.

And again, contempt. And consumers will not notice it in the supermarkets, but ranchers definitely will." Krugman said.

Krugman added that Trump’s broader tariff stance contradicts the idea that cutting tariffs would lower prices, and he questioned how such moves could change voters’ views ahead of midterms.

"Trump complains about communists, but this is not a communist economy in which the government gets to set the price at which hamburger is sold in the supermarket. So it’s all kind of bizarre. And it’s clearly meant to say, I am doing something, without anybody, as far as we can tell, being clear about exactly what it’s being done or why it should work." Krugman said.

In Jackson, Mississippi, Trey Bozeman, CEO of Bozeman Meat Company, said cattle raised locally take years to reach freezer-ready beef, noting that what customers see is not expected to be ready in 2026 but in 2027.

"What you see right right here is not a beef crop that will be ready in 2026. This will all be ready in 2027," Bozeman said.

Bozeman said his business launched in 2023 with direct sales and that demand increased each year, prompting him to pause some plans to expand online because he cannot meet local demand.

"I’ve actually had to halt some plans to sell more online, to do more e-commerce because I cannot keep up with the local demand here. And I really want to take care of my local community first," Bozeman said.

The Mississippi Cattlemen’s Association said all beef sold in the U.S., including imports, is USDA inspected, while Andy Berry said the announcement timing is difficult because ranchers face uncertainty about calf values.

"We’re selling our calves that were born back in the spring right now. I had some cattle that I was ready to sell some calves this morning today that ultimately chose not to because of the uncertainty of what I didn’t know what the market was going to react to the value of my calves. And so that’s what it really hurts," Berry said.

Berry linked higher beef prices to earlier drought and increased operating costs, and he said the U.S. has its smallest cattle herd since before World War II.

"This was certainly a poor decision if we’re wanting to expand the United States herd. It causes uncertainty," Berry said.