El Nino strengthening boosts storm risk odds for Texas

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center says El Nino is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27, increasing expectations for Texas storms and higher snowfall risk.

Tracking data cited in an August forecast shows odds for a very strong El Nino rose from 87% for fall months to roughly 95% between October and November. The shift matters because scientists report only three super strong El Nino events since tracking began.

The same forecast also indicates National Weather Service graphs show odds jumping from roughly 75% to more than 90% around September, suggesting a potentially rainier fall and winter season for Texas. AccuWeather warns that subtropical jet stream changes could push storm systems toward the Lone Star State.

Texas rainfall could run 25% to 49% above average between September and November, though heavy downpours may not fully offset prolonged drought impacts on creeks and lakes.

Potentially colder El Niño winters, with temperatures as much as five degrees below normal in some areas, could also increase the chance that heavier precipitation falls as sleet or snow.

“It seems clear from the data that an increase in snowfall across West Central Texas seems to be one of the numerous results of El Niño,” said Patrick A. McCullough, National Weather Service office in San Angelo.

He added that average winters bring about 3.8 inches of snow to Abilene, while the seasonal snowfall average during an El Niño nearly doubled to 7.4 inches.