DeSantis Warns GOP Map Shift Could Limit Four Seat Flips

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said in Tampa on Monday that Republicans can win four newly drawn U.S. House seats, but doing so will require sustained effort as 2026 politics favor Democrats.

DeSantis described this election cycle as different from 2022, when Republicans secured a legislative supermajority and he won a second term by nearly 20 points against Democrat Charlie Crist, according to his remarks.

He pointed to the national environment, saying President Donald Trump’s approval rating is deep underwater and Democrats lead the generic ballot by almost 7 points.

DeSantis said he has spoken with the winners of Florida’s congressional primaries who are challenging incumbent Democrats, including former news anchor Ryan Elijah, who won the GOP nomination for a Central Florida district by defeating sitting Rep. Cory Mills.

“We may have lost that with Cory Mills,” DeSantis said, referring to Mills as the incumbent accused of sexual misconduct and financial fraud.

At the same time, DeSantis said the map changes this spring put four seats that had been held by Democrats and red-leaning areas, setting up Republicans for a possible pickup.

Independent ratings service Sabato’s Crystal Ball, as cited by the article, listed two Democratic incumbents with the best chances of holding their seats as Reps. Kathy Castor of Tampa and Jared Moskowitz of South Florida, both described as in toss-ups.

DeSantis said he believes the political momentum after Labor Day is likely “baked in,” and he compared the moment to the 2018 gubernatorial race, when he faced Democrat Andrew Gillum during what he called a blue wave.

Republican Byron Donalds won the GOP primary and Democrat David Jolly won the Democratic primary on Aug. 18, with Donalds receiving 48% of the GOP primary vote and Jolly taking 61% of the Democratic vote.

As of 8 a.m. on Aug. 19, the state elections office’s preliminary numbers showed 1,239,312 vote-by-mail ballots had been received, with 818,176 people casting ballots during the early-voting period, according to the report.