Wagner treason and the future of Russia Special Military Operation in Ukraine

Wagner’s coup attempt against the Russian government

For a brief period, from Friday (23/6) to Saturday night (23/6), Russia was jolted by a violent coup attempt, staged by Wagner Group, a private military company (PMC). Eventually, Yevgeny Prigozhin the mercenary group’s leader ordered his troops to pull back from their advance toward Moscow, to avoid bloodshed.

Tensions were initially sparked when Prigozhin ordered his fighters to seize the Southern Military District headquarters in the city of Rostov-on-Don, near the Ukrainian border. His intent was to “take revenge” on Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu, whom he claimed was behind the deadly attacks on his troops as they fought on behalf of Russia in eastern Ukraine.

Abortive coup?

Less than 24 hours after Wagner’s capture of Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin decided to call off the mutiny. In a deal brokered by Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, Wagner fighters would remain in Ukraine while Progozhin would fly into exile in neighboring Belarus. Meanwhile, the Russian government would drop the charge of “Treason” against him and his militiamen.

On Friday (23/6) Prigozhin cursed at Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for the lack of progress in the Ukraine war. Prigozhin claimed Shoigu had constantly been trying to steal credit for Wagner’s victorious battles.

Prigozhin later vowed to embark on a “march for justice” to force the resignation of Russian military leadership.

Security measures were dramatically beefed up in Moscow, and President Vladimir Putin denounced Wagner’s revolt as a “criminal adventure” and promised harsh punishment for Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries.

Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin?

Yevgeny Prigozhin, 62, was the leader of the shadowy Wagner PMC, the one who helped the Russian military fight the Ukraine war. He was popularly dubbed “Putin’s chef”. He was convicted of robbery and assault in 1981 and sentenced to 12 years in prison. After his release, he opened a restaurant business in Saint Petersburg in the 1990s.

While Putin was the Deputy May or of Saint Petersburg, Prigozhin used his political connection with the future Kremlin leader to expand his catering business and win lucrative Russian government contracts.

He then moved into other ventures, including the media and the infamous internet “troll factory” which led to his indictment in the US for meddling in the 2016 US presidential election. In January, Prigozhin admitted to having founded, chaired and financed Wagner Group.

He claimed he had 50,000 men at his disposal “at the best times”, with about 35,000 on the front lines at all times.

He did not clarify whether this number included convicts he recruited from Russian prisons, by offering them pardons if they survived a half year tour fighting for Wagner on the front lines.

Wagner rose to prominence after taking an increasingly visible role in the Ukraine war, where his mercenaries fought on behalf of Moscow after the regular army suffered heavy losses and faced a major humiliation as Ukrainian forces regained more territory.

Prigozhin’s roles in Bakhmut and his ambition

Wagner troops had built a strong reputation, after capturing the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhmut last April, after a long and bloody battle, scoring a much-needed victory in the 15 months of conflict.

Prigozhin turned the victory in Bakhmut into an opportunity to bargain with Russia. As the saying goes, “There is nothing more intoxicating than victory, and nothing more dangerous.” Maybe that’s what happened with Prigozhin. Seemingly confident and full of bravado, he accused top brass in the Russian Defense Ministry of being responsible for the failure in Ukraine.

His feud with the Defense Ministry reached new heights on Saturday when he announced his fighters had crossed from Ukraine into the Russian border city of Rostov-on-Don and that they would destroy anyone who tried to stop them.

The rebellion came a day after Prigozhin accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of ordering a rocket attack on Wagner camps in Ukraine, killing a large number of his fighters.

The infighting reached fever pitch when Prigozhin questioned the Kremlin’s official version of why Russia invaded Ukraine by saying on Friday (23/6): “The Ministry of Defense is trying to deceive the public and the President and spin the story that there were insane levels of aggression from the Ukraine side and that they were going to attack us to-gether with the whole NATO block. The special operation was started for a completely different reason.”

The Russian government responded with an emergency broadcast of President Vladimir Putin’s statement that the “armed rebellion” by Wagner constituted treason and anyone who took up arms against the Russian military would be punished.

It can be argued that Prigozhin’s real motivation was to undermine Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s reputation before President Putin. However, Putin chose to side with Sergei. The unprecedented crisis was eventually defused through smart negotiations with the help of Lukashenko. Offered with a deal, Prigozhin ordered his men to stand down and return to base. The armed uprising was quickly snuffed out.

The future of Putin and the Ukraine war

The brief mutiny staged by Wagner boss Prigozhin was actually a threat to Putin’s reputation and his future grip on power.

Even though Putin was able to quickly and resolutely handle the most serious threat to his power, the use of mercenaries in the Ukraine war still poses a risk to his leadership.

Will Putin change tact by doing away with opportunistic mercenaries and instead rely more on regular Russian troops in the Ukraine war, in order to prevent future threat to his presidency?

It is likely that Putin will be more progressive in waging his war in Ukraine and will be increasingly vigilant about using potentially traitor ous “soldiers of fortune” like the Wagner Group.