Amidst the ongoing bombardment of Iranian soil and the ever-present global threats, we are witnessing a new chapter in the annals of civilization: the Israel-Iran conflict that could potentially draw the United States directly into the battlefield.
However, the pressing question that the world must grapple with today is not merely about the outcome of the conflict, but rather the profound implications of a potential US attack on Iran.
The answer is stark: the world would be led by aggressors and detractors—not statesmen, moral leaders, nor a just civilization.
A World Dominated by Aggressors and Haters
Global leadership should be based on fundamental principles of moral legitimacy, rationality, and long-term stability.
However, a military strike on Iran would fundamentally alter the landscape of international leadership.
The US and Israel would not only project themselves as formidable military powers, but also as architects of global domination, willing to overthrow sovereign regimes in the name of “threat prevention.”
As many geopolitical analysts have rightly pointed out, “If Iran falls, the world will fall under the dominion of a single power: the American Empire.”
This scenario would mark the official transition to an international regime governed by the logic of violence rather than consensus.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s assertion that “this is a battle for survival” actually reveals a narrative of fear systematically amplified by the Zionist camp and its allies.
The primary concern isn’t Iran’s nuclear program—even US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard asserts that Iran isn’t developing nuclear weapons.
The crux of the matter lies in the West’s rejection of Iran’s sovereignty, the independence of Eastern nations, and Iran’s support for Palestine.
This conflict transcends mere geopolitical battles; it constitutes a war of civilizational threat.
Let’s recall the analogy of Yugoslavia: a multi-ethnic country subjected to relentless intervention and foreign pressure.
The dissolution of Yugoslavia wasn’t a popular choice; it was the consequence of a geopolitical scheme disguised as a human rights narrative.
Iran, as a multi-ethnic nation comprising Kurds, Azeris, Arabs, and Baluchis, faces the same perilous fate if it falls victim to foreign aggression.
Post-regime chaos could ignite civil war, disintegration, and a catastrophic humanitarian disaster.
Regrettably, the West appears to have disregarded the lessons learned from Iraq and Libya.
Iraq was toppled in the name of weapons of mass destruction that never materialized.
Libya was destroyed under the guise of democratization, resulting in a failed state plagued by a 21st-century slave trade.
If the US continues this pattern against Iran, the world will witness a repeat of history, where the dominant power transforms from a peacekeeper into a harbinger of destruction.
Geopolitics or New Age Colonialism?
Iran, not only a symbol of Palestinian defense but also a strategic link between Central Asia, the Middle East, and global energy routes, holds significant geopolitical importance. Its power can effectively restrain the US and NATO’s expansion into Eurasia.
Controlling Iran would result in Russia losing its “southern wall” and China losing strategic land access to the Middle East. Therefore, this conflict cannot be viewed solely as an Israel-Iran dispute. It is a war that determines the post-hegemonic world architecture.
We stand at a pivotal moment, facing a choice between maintaining a multipolar world with balanced powers or reverting to a unipolar world dominated by a single country and ideology: Western neoliberalism. A US attack on Iran would signal the world’s surrender to the latter choice: a brutal unipolar world.
Iran has demonstrated genuine goodwill through the signing of the JCPOA in 2015—an international agreement that strictly limits Iran’s uranium enrichment. However, this agreement was unilaterally disregarded by President Trump in 2018. The world seems to have forgotten that diplomacy was attempted and that the US itself was responsible for its revocation.
So, why do the US and Israel now seek to attack Iran once again? The answer is straightforward: their objective is not denuclearization but regime change. The real goal of Israel and the West is not denuclearization but regime change.
The West’s true desire is not for independent countries, particularly those that support Palestine like Iran has done.
If President Trump decides to launch an attack on Iran—his decision must be made within the next two weeks or by July 6, 2025—the world public will witness the transformation of the US’s double standards into a new aggressor in international politics: those who align with the US are supported, while those who oppose them are overthrown.
The global economic impact of such an attack would be profound, placing the world in a high state of risk.
The consequences of this war extend beyond physical and political destruction, impacting global economic stability as well.
Iran, a prominent oil producer in the world, plays a crucial role in the global energy supply chain.
A potential war would inevitably lead to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge to an unprecedented $150 per barrel—currently at 78 USD/barrel—triggering global inflation, energy crises in Europe and Asia, and exacerbating existing global economic inequality post-COVID.
Indonesia, as a net importer of oil and commodities, will also face severe repercussions.
Coal, gold, and palm oil CPO prices are already experiencing an upward trend, indicating potential energy subsidies that could swell and pressure the rupiah exchange rate. Consequently, food prices may increase drastically.
A world dominated by aggressors not only spreads bullets but also inflation and economic suffering in regions that have no direct involvement in war decisions.
In this critical juncture, the world urgently requires an alternative global leadership.
Regrettably, the United Nations appears paralyzed, while the European Union is plagued by internal divisions driven by its own interests.
The emergence of the Eastern coalition—Iran, Russia, and China—can be seen as a new force challenging the sole Western dominance. Indonesia, with its potential to play a significant role, can seize the opportunity if managed by a capable diplomatic team.
Therefore, the outcome of this conflict holds immense historical significance.
If Iran emerges victorious, a multipolar order has a chance to flourish.
However, if Iran falls, the world will witness the resurgence of an empire, where the White House becomes the center of global power, and other nations are reduced to mere subjugated satellites.
Indonesia, as a nation with a constitution that upholds anti-colonial principles and a longstanding history of solidarity with Palestine, cannot remain silent in the face of this unfolding crisis.
We must actively participate in international forums, advocating for an end to aggression, defending the sovereignty of other nations, and promoting diplomacy as the path forward.
We don’t support Iran because we advocate for a fairer and more peaceful world devoid of the logic of brutal power.
If the US launches an attack on Iran and the world permits it, it won’t only be Iran that suffers—all of humanity will bow down to the aggressors and those who harbor hatred.
When the world is led by such individuals, anyone who enjoys freedom today could become the next target tomorrow.
Note: This is the first part of a three-article series exploring the repercussions of the Israel-Iran conflict. The subsequent article will delve into the global economic implications and potential scenarios for its influence on Southeast Asia and Indonesia.
