When Bombs Are Dropped, What Follows? The Answer: Rising Prices, Escalating Tensions, and Global Risks
Why has the United States, a nation that professes to uphold democracy and global peace, decided to align itself with Israel in carrying out airstrikes against Iran?
This decision not only disrupts international diplomacy but also poses significant threats to oil markets, financial systems, and regional stability.
On June 22nd, President Donald Trump confirmed that the US air force had carried out airstrikes against three of Iran’s crucial nuclear sites—Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan.
This marks a turning point in military aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which had already endured a full week of Israeli strikes under Operation Rising Lion.
The US has moved from being a covert supporter to a direct aggressor.
However, is this truly about preventing nuclear weapons proliferation?
Or is it another instance of hegemony disguised as a security narrative?
Double Standards and Lies 4.0
Let’s consider an analogy: imagine a police officer accusing his neighbor of concealing weapons in their home. Without any concrete evidence, the officer launches a missile strike in the name of “preventing danger.”
Even when others assert that there are no such weapons, the officer persists in pressing the missile launch button.
This is the geopolitical logic the US and Israel are currently employing.
Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, specifically for energy and medical research, as clearly outlined in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement.
However, all of this has been disregarded with a single narrative: “Iran is a threat.”
We reside in the era of Lies 4.0, where facts are defeated by algorithms and propaganda.
If a lie is repeated excessively, it becomes the foundation for policy. This is the era where “truth is what is repeated, not what is verified.”
Furthermore, all of this is fueled by incredibly strong lobbying.
Israel is the sole confirmed nuclear-armed nation in the Middle East yet has never faced sanctions. Why? Because Washington’s allegiance to Israel is virtually unconditional.
Pro-Israel lobbying permeates the core of US foreign policy, from Capitol Hill to the White House.
Consequently, the attack on Tehran appears to reflect Tel Aviv’s agenda more than any global objective necessity.
Global Economy: Bracing for a Tsunami from the Persian Gulf
An armed conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran will have far-reaching consequences beyond casualties and destruction.
The most immediate impact will be a surge in global oil prices.
Iran holds the fourth-largest position in OPEC and controls a crucial chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this strait.
Even a single explosion or stray missile could trigger a disruption costing trillions in global economic losses.
Since the confirmation of the airstrikes, crude oil futures have experienced a significant increase. Prices have risen from \$78 to \$80 per barrel in a short period.
If tensions persist, prices could potentially reach \$110 per barrel within the week.
If Iran completely blocks the Strait of Hormuz, prices could soar to \$150–170 per barrel.
This would trigger a cascading effect: global inflation, escalating logistics costs, fiscal strain for developing nations, and the looming threat of recession.
Energy-importing countries like Indonesia would be severely affected.
The government would face a dilemma: raise fuel prices or increase subsidies, both of which would hinder economic growth and household purchasing power.
This situation poses a significant setback to post-pandemic economic recovery and global food security.
The Middle East on the Brink of Chaos
Direct US involvement in bombing Iran could escalate the conflict and expand the war zone.
The Houthis in Yemen have already issued warnings of attacks on US warships in the Red Sea.
Hezbollah in Lebanon is anticipated to intensify attacks in northern Israel.
Shia militias in Iraq, Afghanistan, and even Syria may retaliate.
In essence, this conflict has transcended its bilateral nature and has the potential to escalate into a full-scale regional war.
The Middle East could descend into a raging inferno, with far-reaching consequences for the entire world.
Global stock markets would tremble, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar, potentially triggering new global financial imbalances.
Furthermore, disruptions to logistics routes, spanning from the Suez Canal to the Asia-Middle East-Africa shipping lanes, could exacerbate the ongoing supply chain crisis.
These disruptions might mirror the 2007/2008 financial crisis, but on a much larger scale.
Food, fertilizer, and basic goods prices would surge, exacerbating hunger in Africa and putting immense social pressure on impoverished nations.
Indonesia at Risk of Three Simultaneous Crises
For Indonesia, the consequences of this conflict are profound and multifaceted.
Our nation could face shocks on three distinct levels: fiscal, monetary, and social.
Firstly, rising energy prices will exert immense pressure on the state budget. Fuel, electricity, and LPG subsidies will experience significant increases.
Unless new revenue sources are identified, the fiscal deficit is expected to widen.
Secondly, inflation resulting from higher import prices for energy and food will erode the value of the rupiah.
Bank Indonesia may be compelled to raise interest rates, potentially slowing down economic growth and straining businesses.
Thirdly, the mounting cost of basic goods will likely spark public unrest and social unrest.
Lower- and middle-income groups will once again bear the brunt of a conflict they had no part in.
Indonesia must not remain passive. The government must swiftly devise diplomatic responses and anticipate economic policies.
Reducing dependency on imported oil and accelerating the development of alternative energy sources are crucial steps.
However, the most important action is for Indonesia to speak out in international forums to halt this escalation.
The World Needs Sane Leadership
Today’s events are not merely a military conflict; they represent a clash between two distinct models of global leadership.
On one side, aggression justified by falsehoods.
On the other, a struggle to safeguard sovereignty.
If the world permits the US and Israel to topple any regime they deem a “threat,” then no nation remains immune to future intervention.
This is the opportune moment for the global community, particularly the Global South, to reject the narrative of power cloaked in war logic.
The world does not require more bombs; it demands more common sense.
While Trump may portray this airstrike as a “heroic moment” on social media, in the annals of history, it stands as a destructive act that could plunge the world into a decade of instability.
If the global community fails to intervene now, we are entering a darker era—where every peace is purchased with war, and every truth is suppressed by propaganda.
This article constitutes the second installment of a three-part series examining the repercussions of the Israel-Iran war. The subsequent piece will delve into alternative responses proposed by the Non-Aligned Movement.
